Germany's investment gap: mechanisms, players, risks
Analysis: Economists have long pointed to a backlog in public infrastructure investment.
Economists have long pointed to a backlog in public infrastructure investment.
Several forces are at work in “Germany's investment gap”: the interest rate environment, domestic and foreign demand, regulation and, not least, market participants' expectations. None of these can be viewed in isolation.
Risks include unexpected political decisions, supply chain disruptions and abrupt shifts in financial market sentiment. Opportunities arise where companies respond early to changing conditions.
For executives, the main question regarding “Germany's investment gap” is their own exposure: which costs, revenues and financing conditions depend on it, directly or indirectly?
A proven approach is to run scenarios and monitor leading indicators regularly. That puts decisions on a solid footing without reacting to every headline.