The ifo Business Climate Index: the key questions answered
Explainer: The ifo index is based on a monthly survey of around 9,000 companies in Germany.
The ifo index is based on a monthly survey of around 9,000 companies in Germany.
Anyone looking into “The ifo Business Climate Index” quickly encounters a wealth of figures and opinions. For a sober assessment it pays to go to primary sources: official statistics, publications from the responsible authorities and companies' own reports.
The key is to separate short-term swings from structural developments. Individual monthly readings can be distorted by one-off effects; trends over several quarters are more telling.
Several forces are at work in “The ifo Business Climate Index”: the interest rate environment, domestic and foreign demand, regulation and, not least, market participants' expectations. None of these can be viewed in isolation.
Risks include unexpected political decisions, supply chain disruptions and abrupt shifts in financial market sentiment. Opportunities arise where companies respond early to changing conditions.