Core inflation: mechanisms, players, risks

Core inflation excludes the volatile components of energy and food.

Several forces are at work in “Core inflation”: the interest rate environment, domestic and foreign demand, regulation and, not least, market participants' expectations. None of these can be viewed in isolation.

Risks include unexpected political decisions, supply chain disruptions and abrupt shifts in financial market sentiment. Opportunities arise where companies respond early to changing conditions.

For executives, the main question regarding “Core inflation” is their own exposure: which costs, revenues and financing conditions depend on it, directly or indirectly?

A proven approach is to run scenarios and monitor leading indicators regularly. That puts decisions on a solid footing without reacting to every headline.