Government bonds and risk premia – putting it in context
Background: Yield spreads between euro area government bonds reflect perceived differences in credit risk.
Yield spreads between euro area government bonds reflect perceived differences in credit risk.
The debate around “Government bonds and risk premia” is not new, but it has grown more urgent since 2022. The energy price shock, the turn in interest rates and geopolitical tensions have called many old certainties into question.
Economists and industry bodies assess the situation in different ways. Most agree, however, that reliable conditions for investment decisions are crucial.
Several forces are at work in “Government bonds and risk premia”: the interest rate environment, domestic and foreign demand, regulation and, not least, market participants' expectations. None of these can be viewed in isolation.
Risks include unexpected political decisions, supply chain disruptions and abrupt shifts in financial market sentiment. Opportunities arise where companies respond early to changing conditions.